Don't, Don't, Don't Believe The Hype

Daiskue Matsuzaka is going to win 18 games? LL Cool J is going back to Cali? To quote Uncle L, future of the funk: "I don't think so." I heard about this poll listed over on the Red Sox official team site. It asks the question: How many games will Daisuke Matsuzaka win this season? You could select from: 20 or more, 18-19, 16-17, 14-15, 13 or fewer. After 15617 votes, the results are:
20+ = 4193 votes (27%)
18-19 = 3824 votes (24%)
16-17 = 5089 votes (33%)
14-15 = 1806 votes (12%)
13- = 705 votes (5%)
Wow. That's a lot of faith in a guy that's never thrown a pitch in MLB. More than half of the voters think he's winning at least 18 games. That's astonishing. But as we've seen in the past with polls, Red Sox fans shoot for the moon and often don't see eye-to-eye with the rest of the baseball world. Case in point. ESPN ran a poll in November asking people to vote for who they thought was the AL MVP. I know what you're saying, "But J-Boog, I didn't see that poll. How would I know what the results were?" Fear not my friends, I'm your hook-up. I'd be happy to recap it for you, so you don't have to read the blog I wrote back then. But if you want to, click here.
After 200,000 votes were cast, these were the results:
Derek Jeter 39%
Joe Mauer 12%
Justin Morneau 16%
David Ortiz 24%
Johan Santana 9%
That shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone as we all know who the real MVP was. But the interesting part of the poll was the results by state/region. David Ortiz was the top-vote getter in Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont, or the area more commonly referred to as New England. This is what I wrote back then:
Now Ortiz wasn't the only one to win the states in his "home area." Justin Morneau was far and away winning in Minnesota. He was also leading in the Dakotas, and in Iowa, all of which border Minnesota. Jeter winning in New York, Connecticut and New Jersey. No surprises there. Another thing that didn't surprise me, but may surprise some, is that Derek Jeter was the leading vote-getter in every other state. Based on that, I think it's safe to assume that the majority of baseball fans see Jeter as the MVP, not just we Yankee fans. I'm interested to hear Sox fans explain that one, as they appear to be the ones that disagree. Well to be fair, so do Twins fans.
It was evident then, as it's evident now, that Sox fans see things entirely different than the rest of the world. I'd be interested to see this poll administered somewhere other than on the Red Sox team site, so I could further illustrate my point. Somebody get on that. And if it's already out there, let me know.
I did find a poll listed on ESPN that lends some credence to my point. 9 questions were asked about the Matsuzaka signing. 83,542 votes were cast. Here's some results:
73% of voters felt the $51.1 million posting fee was too much. I agree.
52.9% of voters felt Matsuzaka would do worse than his career average ERA against MLB hitters, only 8.1% thought he'd do better
37.9% of the voters thought the Sox would win the wild card, 14.8% thought they'd win the AL East, and 20.4% thought they'd miss the playoffs
Matsuzaka was thought to be the team's 3rd best starter behind Papelbon and Schilling
That do me doesn't make him sound like people think he's going to be an 18 game winner. He's not even thought of as the team's best starter. 92% of people think his ERA will be worse here than in Japan. And 51% of voters think he'll win 18+ games? Come on Sox fans! You're smarter than that. Right? No? Well at least the majority of you maybe? The peanut gallery is shaking their heads. Tough crowd. It's obvious that Sox fans have bought into the hype. The expectations are high. My question is, what is going to happen if he only wins 15 games? Boston is a tough place to play and it's not being made any easier for him to succeed with all of the media coverage and expectations people have for him. In my opinion, he's being set up to fail.
And for those wondering, I voted for 14-15 as I think he has 14 wins in him. 15 tops.
It's a long fly ball to deep center field. It's outta here.
J-Boog

I Hate You Yolanda Vega

So as you probably could have guessed, I didn't win the big money. I started out OK as the first # drawn was 42, but it was all downhill from there. Cano's old # was drawn and Posada was the mega ball so the Yankees were representing. But alas, it wasn't meant to be.
Clemens is in the booth right now with Leiter and Singleton. He's in town to watch his hetero-life partner Andy pitch. Aw, how sweet. They of course asked him his plans for this season, and he said as of right now he's not thinking about playing. I can think of 20 million reasons why he might change his mind. And I still think NY would be the front runner for his services. Andy I hear, can be very persuasive.
I am not feeling the new hats. That stripe is bugging me.
And uh oh, it looks like somebody's been working on a splitter. Nice.
Enjoy your night.
J

Want To Win $370 Million

Tonight's Mega Millions jackpot is $370 million. Here are the winning numbers:
2-20-24-28-42 and mega ball of 40.
Or maybe you know that as Jeter-Posada-Cano-Cabrera-Rivera and Wang. Sorry Andy, but you left, so you don't count as the homegrowns in this.
To quote Chapelle's Show, "I'm rich, biatch." If only. Keep 'em crossed.
J

Rollin' Rollin' Rollin'

I didn't get to watch the Yankee game today. Silly me forgot to set the DVR. I was trying to follow along by continuously checking out the box score. Wasn't much fun. I saw that that they were down a run in the 9th with 2 out. I hit refresh and the score changed to 6-5. A co-worker of mine, Jeff, was standing at my desk when I saw it, and i put my fist in the air and went "YES!" He thought I was nuts for getting excited about a spring training victory. I said to him, "Hey dude. I take pride in every victory cuz that's how I roll." I couldn't sell him on it. He's a Braves fan. Yeah, good luck with that.
So after basking in the glory of a early spring training victory, I studied the box score. Here's what I surmised:
Kei Igawa's performance didn't surprise me. It basically went as I expected. Again, I didn't see the game, so these conclusions are strictly by the numbers. 3 walks and 3 Ks. We knew he had the ability to strike guys out. We also know that he's still developing his control this year. His first pitch of spring training was reportedly nowhere near its target. It's still too early to tell.
When is Doug Mientkewicz going to get that first hit? Still batting a ******** .000. Man, he better be slick with that glove. He's got some competition with Phelps and Phillips.
Bosom buddies A-Rod and Jeter are looking like they're off to good starts. Sheffield thinks this will be A-Rod's best year in Pinstripes. Let's hope your right Gary. And yes, I still don't like Gary all that much.
Tyler Clippard. He's going to be the shiznit when he gets the call up. Take it to the bank.
The Yankees are 5-0. The Red Sox are 1-4. I know it's only spring training, but it's still fun to point that out. Matsuzaka gets his first "real" start of the spring tomorrow. I'm not sure you can call a start against the Marlins "real," but at least it's not against a college. That'd be like me pitching against 5 year olds. No contest.
Finally, if you haven't yet, go check out Sox and Pinstripes. It's a good stuff. You'll dig it.
Peace, love and Pinstripes.
J

Off To A Good Start

Just watched the spring opener on DVR and I was pretty pleased with what I saw. Most of the game was watched in fast forward. A leadoff longball by Damon. 2 perfect innings from Wang. 2 walks and longball by Giambi. Lots of baserunners. Great pitching and defense. The only negative thing I was Philip Hughes' control problems. He looked a little shaky with his 2 walks and awild pitch, but got the job done. Oh yeah, almost forgot. Despite dropping some pounds and losing some body fat, A-Rod looked like A-Rod with the K looking. Or at least I thought it was a K looking. Hey, I watched it in 2x speed, it looked like a K looking.
Here's hoping that Damon's leadoff bomb is a sign of what's to come.
Peace, love and Pinstripes.
J-Boog

Here We Go Again

Carl Pavano has a bone bruise on his foot. I wouldn't put it pass CP to pretend that he got this injury on the field, when in fact it happened somewhere else. He probably hurt it playing Dance Dance Revolution and just didn't want to fess up to busting a move in the arcade. Getting hit in the foot was just his cover up. This is what it's come to Carl. We even doubt the legitimate injuries.
The spring opener is tomorrow!! Baseball is back.
J-Boogie

This Can Only End Badly

What is this world coming to? Johnny Damon. Baseball player, husband, father, professional wrestler? One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn't belong. Don't get me wrong, I like professional wrestling as much as the next guy, but I always wonder why highly paid professional athletes want to risk their careers by stepping into the ring. Professional wrestling has seen the likes of Dennis Rodman. Karl Malone. Shaq. Kevin Greene. And now apparently, Damon, David Eckstein, and AJ Pierzynski. Now admittedly, I haven't seen any of the shows Damon has been on. It might be totally harmless. But the more you play with fire, the more likely you'll get burned. Continuously put yourself in a position to get hurt, and one day, you just might.
The last thing a professional sports franchise wants is to have one of their players incur an injury in the offseason. And I can't imagine the player wants to hurt himself either. I wonder how Aaron Boone, Jeff Kent, and Ken Griffey feel about it? I'm surprised that the Yankees would allow Damon to participate, regardless of one's assurances on how harmless it is. It's not out of the realm of possibility that one can mess up their wrist when hitting someone with a chair. My point, is why put yourself in a position to hurt yourself, and more importantly, your team? Things can go wrong.
When asked about actually getting into the ring, Damon said, "Hey, you never know. It might be coming in the near future." Why do I get the feeling that it's going to happen? Like the title of this entry goes, this can only end badly. Don't do it Johnny. Focus on #27. Leave the "sports entertainment" to the professionals.
RIP Mad Dog. Godspeed.
J

Catching Up

Wow, it's been a while since I've blogged. Haven't really been feeling it lately. The break has been nice, but I'm getting ready to get back into the swing of things now that spring training is underway. I was going to "report" on the mandatory date of March 1st, but I thought I'd show up early to get some extra work in. I'll get right into it.
So Derek and Alex aren't the best of friends anymore. Does that really come as a shock to anyone? What shocks me is the amount of coverage and discussion this topic gets. I'm also shocked at how overblown the whole thing is. If you really think about this logically, I mean sit down and put some time into your thought processing, you'll realize this is such a non-story. Here are two guys that met in their teen years and have known each other for 15 some-odd years. At one time, the two probably were as close as brothers. But as people grow up, they grow apart. It happens to everyone. If you're in your early 30s, like me, ask yourself how many people you still talk to from high school? Me? I talk to two. Do I talk to them nearly as much as I did when we were younger? No. Would I say our friendship has cooled? Hardly. The fact of the matter is people grow up. Get married. Have kids. Start a family. A-Rod is married with a kid. Derek is the single bachelor. Do people honestly think these two are going to go out every night combing the streets for tail? What high-profile married man would even put himself in that position? Everything that Alex said about the pair is simple and true. They're not as close as they used to be. That's the way life goes. Don't look for any deeper meaning. You won't find it.
I'm really hoping Carl Pavano gets traded sometime before Opening Day. I'm with Mussina on this one. His lack of desire has been evident from day one and everybody knows it. He's done nothing to demonstrate that he wants to be a Yankee. I don't know how at this point, CP can expect anyone to have faith in him. Like Mussina said, "Actions speak louder than words." CP's actions don't show any commitment to the team. You can say you're committed all you want, but right now, no one is buying what you're selling. Don't be so surprised if he gets booted out of Legends Fields before spring training is over.
Despite his comments, Mariano Rivera isn't going anywhere when his contract is up. If you follow baseball, you know that most clubs don't talk contracts until the year is up. That's the nature of the business. Sure, you see the occasional pre-season extension, but by-and-large, those discussions are saved for after the World Series. Mo knows this. Quite frankly, I think this entire story started and kept rolling because the press had nothing else to write about. The press is a funny animal. You answer their question, they don't like your answer, so they re-ask the same question in a different way. I don't know how many of you heard the audio of A-Rod discussing his relationship with Jeter. The press asked, he answered, they asked again, but in a different way. Alex responded with something like, "I gave you guys a good answer. I'm not talking anymore about it." Or something like that. You ever see in the movies when a snowball rolls down the mountain and just gets bigger and bigger and bigger. The snowball effect they call it. That's what these stories remind me of. The press just keeps rolling and rolling and then there's this huge story, that's not really huge. I can see why players hate talking to the media. They do make themselves look like idiots at times.
It looks like this is the end for Bernie Williams, and I'm a little bummed about that. But I'm still holding out that he'll be back in Pinstripes in 2007. I can understand why he rejected the minor-league offer. It makes total sense. He sees no guarantee that he'll be on the Opening Day roster. From an organizational standpoint, the Yankees hands are tied when it comes to Bernie. There really isn't room for him. Scratch that, there is room for him, but you can't guarantee him that spot at this point in the spring. He's obviously not fitting into the OF will Abreu, Damon, Matsui, and Cabrera. Had the Yankees traded Melky, then you'd see Bernie there right now, no question. But the team needs to get younger. Giambi is going to be the full-time DH, no room there. The only other option is to slot Bernie in at first base, to platoon with Doug Mientkiewicz. And there's no guarantee he gets that position as there's Andy Philips and rule 5 pick Josh Phelps. I'd take Bernie in a heartbeat over both of those 2, but he would have had to come to camp on a non-roster invite. I love Bernie, so I'm knocking on wood that he shows up at some point. I don't want to see anyone get hurt, but I'd have to think if someone does, Bernie is getting a call. So Bernie if you're reading this, stay in shape. You will be needed. But if I've seen you play your final game in Pinstripes, it was a good run. You are one of the greatest Yankees of my generation. I'm glad I got to see you play.
I think it's pretty cool that the Yankees will be honoring the memory of Cory Lidle by sporting arm bands throughout 2007. It's a fitting tribute to one of their teammates, made even better by not assigning Lidle's #30 to anyone this season. Cheers to the Yankee brass for this.
Jeers though to Yankees general partner Steve Swindal, who was arrested for suspicion of driving under the influence. Bad form.
And what would my blog be without a little Red Sox talk. I'm not sure if there is any truth to this rumor, but a guy at work was telling me that the Sox have decided on their closer, they're just not announcing it yet. He said it was mentioned on ESPN, but I didn't see it. Apparently, it'll be Jonathan Papelbon. Let him start, let him close. I don't care. I personally see him getting lit up this year, especially if he starts. As a closer, he'll be alright, but an ERA of 2.5-3.5 is in the cards for him. If you think he's going to dominate and have another sub 1.00 ERA, come talk to me in October, so I can say I told you so. The league will figure him out. And is it me, or is Daisuke Matsuzaka looking a little pudgy? A little reminiscent of Hideki Irabu?
RIP Hank Bauer.
And finally, I'm not feeling the new BP hats. I'm not feeling the stripe. But that's just me.
Opening Day is around the corner. Peace, love, and Pinstripes.
J

We Want Bernie!

The Yankees have extended a non-guaranteed Minor League invite to spring training to fan favorite and life-long Yankee Bernie Williams. I for one want to see Bernie back in Pinstripes in 2008. I still think he can bring something to the table. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be any room at the inn for Bern. The OF is already full and there are a plethora of 1B. So where would Bernie fit in? I'm not sure, but in the event of an injury to anyone, Bernie would be the guy I'd like to see step into that role. Maybe Jorge can teach him to be the backup C? Dare to dream.
I can't imagine Bernie in any other uniform, and I honestly don't think he can either. It would be just weird. What would be really weird would be to see him suiting up for the Scranton Yankees. That's a possibility. I hope the two sides can get creative and work something out.
Go Yanks!
J-Boog

No Helton For You

I can't help but laugh at those that think the Colorado Rockies were asking for too much in their trade talks with the Red Sox. Imagine if you will:
Theo Epstein: "Hey Colorado. I hear Todd Helton is on the market. He's arguably one of the most prolific hitters in the past 10 years. What do you say we trade you Mike Lowell, who's nearing the end of his career and is in the final year of his contract, and will likely leave you after 2007. And we'll also throw in journeyman reliever Julian Tavarez. He's no spring chicken, and he might not be playing with a full deck, but he'll no doubt excel in the friendly confines of Coors Field, the greatest pitcher friendly park in the Majors. And maybe in addition to Helton, you pay us half of his remaining salary. Want me to announce the deal??"
The Red Sox basically wanted to trade the Rockies garbage in exchange for one of the game's greatest hitters. This makes me laugh. It's like the guy in my Diamond Mind league that offers up Paul Maholm in exchange for both Mariano Rivera and Moises Alou. Yeah, I'll get right on it. In what world is the trade of Helton for Lowell and Tavarez a fair deal? You expect to trade 2 aging players for one of the game's best? Anybody with half of a brain when it comes to baseball knows you have to include some young talent when you talk these deals. And yes, I know the financial aspect changes things, but asking for a pitching prospect wasn't an excessive request in my opinion.
"They weren’t willing to give us a player compatible for what we felt we needed. It didn’t work out. When you are talking about a Todd Helton, you need to get someone back who is going to be an impact player." - Charlie Monfrot, Rockies owner
Well duh. Here's what I see as one of Boston's problems: Theo Epstein doesn't want to get burned again. The Sox could be sitting pretty if they didn't trade away Anibal Sanchez, Bronson Arroyo, and Hanley Ramirez. What did the Sox get by landing Wily Mo Pena, Josh Beckett, and Mike Lowell? If you said a 3rd place finish, you're right. I think the Sox are a little gun shy in trading Delcarmen or Hansen, as they don't want to see them pan out to be superstars. Sanchez throws a no-no. Ramirez was the NL ROY. Arroyo was an all-star. And again, Boston's acquisitions landed them a 3rd place finish.
In the end, I think this trade will still happen. The Red Sox appear to be jaded after finishing 3rd and I can see them ponying up the prospect b/c they think Helton will help them win. I still think Theo is a little shell-shocked at the loss of Damon, the failure to land a big bat at the trade deadline, and finishing 3rd. I said a few months ago that the Red Sox were becoming a lot like the Yankees and I think their failures in 2006 are the main reason why. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
J