Jeff Karstens Is Your American Idol

For those of you that are watching (or got to watch) tonight's Yankees/Twins spring training game, how awesome did Jeff Karstens look? Man that kid looked sharp. He's looked awesome all spring. His spring totals are: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K . I know it's only spring training, but it's quite impressive nonetheless.
The Yankees have set themselves up rather nicely for the future of the rotation. Karstens, Clippard, Hughes, Sanchez. What was once a pretty barren farm system is blossoming into one of the league's best, with young arms o'plenty.
I don't know how many people are familiar with the game Diamond Mind Baseball. It's kind of like Strat-O-Matic. It's a simulation based baseball game that's based more on stats, than on your typical game that has a lot to do with hand-eye coordination and button pressing. It's a pretty respected company. They've been asked to create teams and run simulations for many different projects. Every year, they release a projection disk for the game. They run simulations and post the results, and usually they're spot on. ESPN posts their projections every year, and I think they even used them once for a greatest teams tournament. Or maybe that was USA Today. Anyway, they've yet to run their official projections, but the disk is out and some of the gamers have run their own simulations. Here's the link to one. For those too lazy to look, here were the results of the AL East, based on a 50-season simulation. It's the avg. number of wins, followed by division titles, followed by wild card births.
AL East NYA 96.20 37/7 TOR 90.48 10/13 BOS 85.30 3/8 BAL 75.76 0/1 TB 69.20 0/0
Now I know this isn't an exact science, but it's nice to see that it's not only Yankee fans that don't give the BoSox much of a chance in 2007. It should be interesting to see their official results when they've completed their sims. Regardless, we don't need a computer to tell us what we already now, right?
Peace, love and Pinstripes.
J-Boogie

A Tale Of Two Cities

I love all the smack talk from Red Sox fans how they have a superior starting rotation. It's getting me back into the blogging swing o'things. I think it's going to be hee-freaking-sterical when they finish in 3rd again and they all realize that their rotation, while solid, wasn't all they thought it would be. It's definitely not the best rotation in MLB. Some might even say, like me, that they don't even have the best rotation in their division. Personally, I think they have a rotation that is slightly below that of the Yankees. Let's take a look, shall we. Buckle up, it's going to be a long ride.
Curt Schilling is without a doubt one of the game's better pitchers. Some might say the same honor applies to Mike Mussina. The two had comparable years last year, each going 15-7, with Mussina besting the Schillmeister in the ERA department, 3.51 to 3.97. If you toss out an injury plagued 2005 and what I assume was an injury plagued 1994, Schilling had his worst year statistically since 1993, when he went 16-7 and had an ERA of 4.02. While Schilling is digressing, Mussina improved on his numbers, having his best year since 2003. His ERA dropped almost a point, his WHIP was down .26, and opponents batting average dropped 43 points from the 2006 campaign. This was due likely in part to a modification in the way he throws his changeup. To say, or even think, that Schilling is primed to have a better year than Mussina, is ridiculous. I'd rather go into battle with the Moose any day.
Tim Wakefield vs. Andy Pettitte. I'm sorry but even the most biased of baseball fans will tell you there is no comparison between the two. Wakefield is primarily a knuckleballer, which can be either hit or miss. Sometimes you got it working, sometimes you don't. As a whole, Wakefield has it working more often than not but last year, it was evident he didn't have it working as well, kicking in for a 7-11 record. He didn't have a horrible year by any means. Bur far from remarkable. He also missed a third or so of the season with if memory serves me correctly, a rib injury? So now durability is a factor. He's not exactly a spring chicken. Many will argue that Andy Pettitte's 2006 campaign wasn't anything worth remembering, and it wasn't. But the second half of his year was miles better than the first half. Pettitte's ERA through the end of July last year was 5.18. Over his last 12 starts, he posted an ERA of 2.39, and dropped that ERA almost a full point to 4.20. Whatever kinks he had in his mechanics, were obviously corrected. Andy will undoubtedly suffer from making the jump back to the AL, but I don't anticipate it having a large impact. He's returning to a place he's familiar with. And I'm sorry but Yankee Stadium benefits LH pitchers a lot more than the friendly confines of Minute Maid park. Without question, Pettitte wins this battle.
Moving to the the battle of the ex-Marlins, Beckett v. Pavano. Josh Beckett didn't exactly make a smooth transition to the AL. He found himself at the end of the season winning 16 games, but posting an ERA of 5.01. Not exactly stellar. He yielded more HRs, struck out fewer batters, and allowed more baserunners than he he did in previous seasons. And he did all of this "blister-free." He did lead the league in fist pumps. That's always a plus. The potential is there as we saw in Florida, but the same can be said for Carl Pavano. CP hasn't exactly been embraced by Yankee fans, present company included, but he has the potential to get it done. In his 2 years with the Yankees, we've only seen CP 17 times. He missed all of 2007 and 2006 was an injury-plagued campaign. He wasn't exactly stellar on the hill in his 17 outings, going 4-6, but he only had an ERA of 4.77, 1/4 of a point below Beckett's first year in the AL. So despite allowing more baserunners and having opponents hit better than .300 against him during his first year as a Yankee, CP posted a lower ERA than Beckett. And oh yeah, he was pitching hurt. Perhaps if CP had the 2006 Yankee lineup batting for him, the record would have been a little better. Well, he'll have an even better lineup "going to bat" for him in 2007. Even with a less than stellar performance, he'll probably win 12-15 if he pitches healthy. Josh Beckett isn't the only one who can benefit from run support. See Randy Johnson. If you're quick to dismiss Pavano, you should also be quick to dismiss Beckett.
The youngsters. Wang vs. Papelbon. These two are hard to compare as Papelbon was a closer in 2006. Paps had a phenomenal year in 2006. An ERA less than 1.00. His WHIP, a minuscule 0.78. Those numbers aren't anything to mess with. But if you expect those numbers to repeat themselves as a starter, you've got another thing coming. I'm a firm believer that, on a whole, as batters get more acquainted with a pitcher, the worse the pitcher does. I think it's easier for a batter to make the necessary adjustments to a pitcher, than vice versa. How often do you see rookies blow the doors off of teams only to fall apart as more starts are put under his belt. It happens quite often to the Yankees. The majority of the American League faced Papelbon a handful of times. When you've got good stuff as a pitcher and you only face a guy 3 times a year, you're in a good position. I personally think the more Paps pitches, the more likely his numbers will rise to mediocrity, or best case scenario for him, to an ERA of 3.75 to 4.25. I personally think the biggest mistake the Sox are making this year is converting him to a starter. It's going to bite you. Chein-Ming Wang on the other hand, already has completed two tour of duties. The league has seen him. The league has had their chance to adjust. In my opinion, it's a lot tougher to adjust to a guy that can throw a phenomenal sinker ball, which Wang can throw. Wang has a career record of 27-11. His ERA is below average. He keeps the ball in the park and the DP is his best friend. As long as the sinker is working, which he's shown isn't a concern, he is knocking on the door of 20 wins. Wang won 19 games in 2006. He was the runner-up for the Cy Young. He's not a chump. Many say he is legitimately the Yankee's best pitcher. Papelbon is a good closer, no question. To assume that automatically makes him a great starter, that's absurd. It's a lot more likely for a mediocre starter to become a great closer, than the other way around. See Byung-Hyun Kim. When the smoke clears, Wang will have the better year.
And finally, the battle of the Orient. I won't even try to make a case that Kei Igawa is better than Daisuke Matsuzaka. It'd be a waste. Matsuzaka, by everyone's take, is awesome. Maybe so, but that doesn't translate into immediate success here in MLB. Plenty of highly-touted Japanese pitchers have come to MLB and turned out to be one-hit wonders. The last time I saw Hideo Nomo he was strolling through a Columbus mall on his way to the GAP. See also Hideki Irabu. What you expect, is not always what you get. As for Igawa though, to dismiss him as inadequate is preposterous. He was the Japanese strikeout leader in 2002, 2004, and 2006. A career ERA of 3.15. His 2006 season saw him go 14-9 with an ERA of 2.97. By all accounts, Igawa is a back-of-the-rotation pitcher. But Yankee scouts saw value in him to bring him on as a starter. But if he falters, in steps possibly Tyler Clippard, Humberto Sanchez, or maybe even highly-touted Philip Hughes. all of which by many accounts, aren't back of the rotation caliber. Our weakest link can be replaced with better options. I don't think the Sox can say that. Decent youngsters, but none arguably better than who they've got now.
Man that was a lot to write, but I think I've sufficiently debunked the myth that the Sox have a great rotation and one that is better than the Yankees. J-Boogie: Mythbuster. Can you dig it? At best, in my opinion, the Sox rotation is on par with the Yankee rotation. I'd rather go into battle with the Yankee staff, than I would the Red Sox staff. I'm of course biased in that decision, but I'd think even those with no attachment to either club (and non-haters) would be inclined to agree. If any of you read this and care to weigh in, by all means, please do.
I'm starting to feel it. 24 days and counting.....
J-Boogie

Don't, Don't, Don't Believe The Hype

Daiskue Matsuzaka is going to win 18 games? LL Cool J is going back to Cali? To quote Uncle L, future of the funk: "I don't think so." I heard about this poll listed over on the Red Sox official team site. It asks the question: How many games will Daisuke Matsuzaka win this season? You could select from: 20 or more, 18-19, 16-17, 14-15, 13 or fewer. After 15617 votes, the results are:
20+ = 4193 votes (27%)
18-19 = 3824 votes (24%)
16-17 = 5089 votes (33%)
14-15 = 1806 votes (12%)
13- = 705 votes (5%)
Wow. That's a lot of faith in a guy that's never thrown a pitch in MLB. More than half of the voters think he's winning at least 18 games. That's astonishing. But as we've seen in the past with polls, Red Sox fans shoot for the moon and often don't see eye-to-eye with the rest of the baseball world. Case in point. ESPN ran a poll in November asking people to vote for who they thought was the AL MVP. I know what you're saying, "But J-Boog, I didn't see that poll. How would I know what the results were?" Fear not my friends, I'm your hook-up. I'd be happy to recap it for you, so you don't have to read the blog I wrote back then. But if you want to, click here.
After 200,000 votes were cast, these were the results:
Derek Jeter 39%
Joe Mauer 12%
Justin Morneau 16%
David Ortiz 24%
Johan Santana 9%
That shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone as we all know who the real MVP was. But the interesting part of the poll was the results by state/region. David Ortiz was the top-vote getter in Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont, or the area more commonly referred to as New England. This is what I wrote back then:
Now Ortiz wasn't the only one to win the states in his "home area." Justin Morneau was far and away winning in Minnesota. He was also leading in the Dakotas, and in Iowa, all of which border Minnesota. Jeter winning in New York, Connecticut and New Jersey. No surprises there. Another thing that didn't surprise me, but may surprise some, is that Derek Jeter was the leading vote-getter in every other state. Based on that, I think it's safe to assume that the majority of baseball fans see Jeter as the MVP, not just we Yankee fans. I'm interested to hear Sox fans explain that one, as they appear to be the ones that disagree. Well to be fair, so do Twins fans.
It was evident then, as it's evident now, that Sox fans see things entirely different than the rest of the world. I'd be interested to see this poll administered somewhere other than on the Red Sox team site, so I could further illustrate my point. Somebody get on that. And if it's already out there, let me know.
I did find a poll listed on ESPN that lends some credence to my point. 9 questions were asked about the Matsuzaka signing. 83,542 votes were cast. Here's some results:
73% of voters felt the $51.1 million posting fee was too much. I agree.
52.9% of voters felt Matsuzaka would do worse than his career average ERA against MLB hitters, only 8.1% thought he'd do better
37.9% of the voters thought the Sox would win the wild card, 14.8% thought they'd win the AL East, and 20.4% thought they'd miss the playoffs
Matsuzaka was thought to be the team's 3rd best starter behind Papelbon and Schilling
That do me doesn't make him sound like people think he's going to be an 18 game winner. He's not even thought of as the team's best starter. 92% of people think his ERA will be worse here than in Japan. And 51% of voters think he'll win 18+ games? Come on Sox fans! You're smarter than that. Right? No? Well at least the majority of you maybe? The peanut gallery is shaking their heads. Tough crowd. It's obvious that Sox fans have bought into the hype. The expectations are high. My question is, what is going to happen if he only wins 15 games? Boston is a tough place to play and it's not being made any easier for him to succeed with all of the media coverage and expectations people have for him. In my opinion, he's being set up to fail.
And for those wondering, I voted for 14-15 as I think he has 14 wins in him. 15 tops.
It's a long fly ball to deep center field. It's outta here.
J-Boog

I Hate You Yolanda Vega

So as you probably could have guessed, I didn't win the big money. I started out OK as the first # drawn was 42, but it was all downhill from there. Cano's old # was drawn and Posada was the mega ball so the Yankees were representing. But alas, it wasn't meant to be.
Clemens is in the booth right now with Leiter and Singleton. He's in town to watch his hetero-life partner Andy pitch. Aw, how sweet. They of course asked him his plans for this season, and he said as of right now he's not thinking about playing. I can think of 20 million reasons why he might change his mind. And I still think NY would be the front runner for his services. Andy I hear, can be very persuasive.
I am not feeling the new hats. That stripe is bugging me.
And uh oh, it looks like somebody's been working on a splitter. Nice.
Enjoy your night.
J

Want To Win $370 Million

Tonight's Mega Millions jackpot is $370 million. Here are the winning numbers:
2-20-24-28-42 and mega ball of 40.
Or maybe you know that as Jeter-Posada-Cano-Cabrera-Rivera and Wang. Sorry Andy, but you left, so you don't count as the homegrowns in this.
To quote Chapelle's Show, "I'm rich, biatch." If only. Keep 'em crossed.
J

Rollin' Rollin' Rollin'

I didn't get to watch the Yankee game today. Silly me forgot to set the DVR. I was trying to follow along by continuously checking out the box score. Wasn't much fun. I saw that that they were down a run in the 9th with 2 out. I hit refresh and the score changed to 6-5. A co-worker of mine, Jeff, was standing at my desk when I saw it, and i put my fist in the air and went "YES!" He thought I was nuts for getting excited about a spring training victory. I said to him, "Hey dude. I take pride in every victory cuz that's how I roll." I couldn't sell him on it. He's a Braves fan. Yeah, good luck with that.
So after basking in the glory of a early spring training victory, I studied the box score. Here's what I surmised:
Kei Igawa's performance didn't surprise me. It basically went as I expected. Again, I didn't see the game, so these conclusions are strictly by the numbers. 3 walks and 3 Ks. We knew he had the ability to strike guys out. We also know that he's still developing his control this year. His first pitch of spring training was reportedly nowhere near its target. It's still too early to tell.
When is Doug Mientkewicz going to get that first hit? Still batting a ******** .000. Man, he better be slick with that glove. He's got some competition with Phelps and Phillips.
Bosom buddies A-Rod and Jeter are looking like they're off to good starts. Sheffield thinks this will be A-Rod's best year in Pinstripes. Let's hope your right Gary. And yes, I still don't like Gary all that much.
Tyler Clippard. He's going to be the shiznit when he gets the call up. Take it to the bank.
The Yankees are 5-0. The Red Sox are 1-4. I know it's only spring training, but it's still fun to point that out. Matsuzaka gets his first "real" start of the spring tomorrow. I'm not sure you can call a start against the Marlins "real," but at least it's not against a college. That'd be like me pitching against 5 year olds. No contest.
Finally, if you haven't yet, go check out Sox and Pinstripes. It's a good stuff. You'll dig it.
Peace, love and Pinstripes.
J

Off To A Good Start

Just watched the spring opener on DVR and I was pretty pleased with what I saw. Most of the game was watched in fast forward. A leadoff longball by Damon. 2 perfect innings from Wang. 2 walks and longball by Giambi. Lots of baserunners. Great pitching and defense. The only negative thing I was Philip Hughes' control problems. He looked a little shaky with his 2 walks and awild pitch, but got the job done. Oh yeah, almost forgot. Despite dropping some pounds and losing some body fat, A-Rod looked like A-Rod with the K looking. Or at least I thought it was a K looking. Hey, I watched it in 2x speed, it looked like a K looking.
Here's hoping that Damon's leadoff bomb is a sign of what's to come.
Peace, love and Pinstripes.
J-Boog

Here We Go Again

Carl Pavano has a bone bruise on his foot. I wouldn't put it pass CP to pretend that he got this injury on the field, when in fact it happened somewhere else. He probably hurt it playing Dance Dance Revolution and just didn't want to fess up to busting a move in the arcade. Getting hit in the foot was just his cover up. This is what it's come to Carl. We even doubt the legitimate injuries.
The spring opener is tomorrow!! Baseball is back.
J-Boogie

This Can Only End Badly

What is this world coming to? Johnny Damon. Baseball player, husband, father, professional wrestler? One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn't belong. Don't get me wrong, I like professional wrestling as much as the next guy, but I always wonder why highly paid professional athletes want to risk their careers by stepping into the ring. Professional wrestling has seen the likes of Dennis Rodman. Karl Malone. Shaq. Kevin Greene. And now apparently, Damon, David Eckstein, and AJ Pierzynski. Now admittedly, I haven't seen any of the shows Damon has been on. It might be totally harmless. But the more you play with fire, the more likely you'll get burned. Continuously put yourself in a position to get hurt, and one day, you just might.
The last thing a professional sports franchise wants is to have one of their players incur an injury in the offseason. And I can't imagine the player wants to hurt himself either. I wonder how Aaron Boone, Jeff Kent, and Ken Griffey feel about it? I'm surprised that the Yankees would allow Damon to participate, regardless of one's assurances on how harmless it is. It's not out of the realm of possibility that one can mess up their wrist when hitting someone with a chair. My point, is why put yourself in a position to hurt yourself, and more importantly, your team? Things can go wrong.
When asked about actually getting into the ring, Damon said, "Hey, you never know. It might be coming in the near future." Why do I get the feeling that it's going to happen? Like the title of this entry goes, this can only end badly. Don't do it Johnny. Focus on #27. Leave the "sports entertainment" to the professionals.
RIP Mad Dog. Godspeed.
J

Catching Up

Wow, it's been a while since I've blogged. Haven't really been feeling it lately. The break has been nice, but I'm getting ready to get back into the swing of things now that spring training is underway. I was going to "report" on the mandatory date of March 1st, but I thought I'd show up early to get some extra work in. I'll get right into it.
So Derek and Alex aren't the best of friends anymore. Does that really come as a shock to anyone? What shocks me is the amount of coverage and discussion this topic gets. I'm also shocked at how overblown the whole thing is. If you really think about this logically, I mean sit down and put some time into your thought processing, you'll realize this is such a non-story. Here are two guys that met in their teen years and have known each other for 15 some-odd years. At one time, the two probably were as close as brothers. But as people grow up, they grow apart. It happens to everyone. If you're in your early 30s, like me, ask yourself how many people you still talk to from high school? Me? I talk to two. Do I talk to them nearly as much as I did when we were younger? No. Would I say our friendship has cooled? Hardly. The fact of the matter is people grow up. Get married. Have kids. Start a family. A-Rod is married with a kid. Derek is the single bachelor. Do people honestly think these two are going to go out every night combing the streets for tail? What high-profile married man would even put himself in that position? Everything that Alex said about the pair is simple and true. They're not as close as they used to be. That's the way life goes. Don't look for any deeper meaning. You won't find it.
I'm really hoping Carl Pavano gets traded sometime before Opening Day. I'm with Mussina on this one. His lack of desire has been evident from day one and everybody knows it. He's done nothing to demonstrate that he wants to be a Yankee. I don't know how at this point, CP can expect anyone to have faith in him. Like Mussina said, "Actions speak louder than words." CP's actions don't show any commitment to the team. You can say you're committed all you want, but right now, no one is buying what you're selling. Don't be so surprised if he gets booted out of Legends Fields before spring training is over.
Despite his comments, Mariano Rivera isn't going anywhere when his contract is up. If you follow baseball, you know that most clubs don't talk contracts until the year is up. That's the nature of the business. Sure, you see the occasional pre-season extension, but by-and-large, those discussions are saved for after the World Series. Mo knows this. Quite frankly, I think this entire story started and kept rolling because the press had nothing else to write about. The press is a funny animal. You answer their question, they don't like your answer, so they re-ask the same question in a different way. I don't know how many of you heard the audio of A-Rod discussing his relationship with Jeter. The press asked, he answered, they asked again, but in a different way. Alex responded with something like, "I gave you guys a good answer. I'm not talking anymore about it." Or something like that. You ever see in the movies when a snowball rolls down the mountain and just gets bigger and bigger and bigger. The snowball effect they call it. That's what these stories remind me of. The press just keeps rolling and rolling and then there's this huge story, that's not really huge. I can see why players hate talking to the media. They do make themselves look like idiots at times.
It looks like this is the end for Bernie Williams, and I'm a little bummed about that. But I'm still holding out that he'll be back in Pinstripes in 2007. I can understand why he rejected the minor-league offer. It makes total sense. He sees no guarantee that he'll be on the Opening Day roster. From an organizational standpoint, the Yankees hands are tied when it comes to Bernie. There really isn't room for him. Scratch that, there is room for him, but you can't guarantee him that spot at this point in the spring. He's obviously not fitting into the OF will Abreu, Damon, Matsui, and Cabrera. Had the Yankees traded Melky, then you'd see Bernie there right now, no question. But the team needs to get younger. Giambi is going to be the full-time DH, no room there. The only other option is to slot Bernie in at first base, to platoon with Doug Mientkiewicz. And there's no guarantee he gets that position as there's Andy Philips and rule 5 pick Josh Phelps. I'd take Bernie in a heartbeat over both of those 2, but he would have had to come to camp on a non-roster invite. I love Bernie, so I'm knocking on wood that he shows up at some point. I don't want to see anyone get hurt, but I'd have to think if someone does, Bernie is getting a call. So Bernie if you're reading this, stay in shape. You will be needed. But if I've seen you play your final game in Pinstripes, it was a good run. You are one of the greatest Yankees of my generation. I'm glad I got to see you play.
I think it's pretty cool that the Yankees will be honoring the memory of Cory Lidle by sporting arm bands throughout 2007. It's a fitting tribute to one of their teammates, made even better by not assigning Lidle's #30 to anyone this season. Cheers to the Yankee brass for this.
Jeers though to Yankees general partner Steve Swindal, who was arrested for suspicion of driving under the influence. Bad form.
And what would my blog be without a little Red Sox talk. I'm not sure if there is any truth to this rumor, but a guy at work was telling me that the Sox have decided on their closer, they're just not announcing it yet. He said it was mentioned on ESPN, but I didn't see it. Apparently, it'll be Jonathan Papelbon. Let him start, let him close. I don't care. I personally see him getting lit up this year, especially if he starts. As a closer, he'll be alright, but an ERA of 2.5-3.5 is in the cards for him. If you think he's going to dominate and have another sub 1.00 ERA, come talk to me in October, so I can say I told you so. The league will figure him out. And is it me, or is Daisuke Matsuzaka looking a little pudgy? A little reminiscent of Hideki Irabu?
RIP Hank Bauer.
And finally, I'm not feeling the new BP hats. I'm not feeling the stripe. But that's just me.
Opening Day is around the corner. Peace, love, and Pinstripes.
J