Stat Line Of The Day

This is for the Sox fans who laughed when Carl Pavano was named Opening Day starter:
Carl Pavano: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
Curt Schilling: 4.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
CP is probably the Yankees 5th best starter. Schilling is widely thought of as the Sox best starter. How'd ya like dem apples?
Welcome to the bigs Okajima. 1st pitch in MLB hammered for a dinger. Impressive.
J-Boogie

Mission 27 Starts Now

Enjoy the opener!

2007 Predictions

I thought I'd post my 2007 predictions. Here they are:
AL East
Yankees
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
Devil Rays
AL Central
Tigers
Indians
White Sox
Twins
Royals
AL West
Angels
Mariners
Rangers
A's
NL East
Phillies
Mets
Braves
Nationals
Marlins
NL Central
Brewers
Astros
Cubs
Cardinals
Reds
Pirates
NL West
Dodgers
Padres
Diamondback
Giants
Rockies
ALDS: Yankees over Tigers, Angels over Indians
NLDS: Dodgers over Mets, Phillies over Brewers
ALCS: Angels over Yankees
NLCS: Dodgers over Phillies
World Series: Angels over Dodgers
Now I obviously want to see the Yankees take home #27, and I think they can, but I'm realistic, and I think they'll struggle in a short series. I hope I'm wrong. We'll find out. It all starts tonight.
J

Back To Baseball

T-minus 2 days. Aw yeah. Can you feel it? I can. With each passing second, my excitement level for Opening Day rises. Finally, baseball is back!
So, Yankee fan-favorite Carl Pavano is going to start the opener. I'm not sure why everyone is making such a big bruhaha over this. Sure not many of us are CP fans. Sure, he doesn't exactly have the best track record as a Yankee. But sometimes, circumstances change and you gotta do what you gotta do. Any the Yankees pretty much have no choice but to give the Pavano the ball. The setup for the rotation was setup long before Wang suffered his injury. I don't see the need to move Mussina or Pettitte into the role as it's senseless to take someone off their schedule just so they can wear the moniker "opening day starter." So CP, basically by default or for lack of a better option, will take the mound come Monday when the Yanks take on the D-Rays. As much as I don't like CP, he's not what I would classify as a horrible pitcher. Flashback to 2005 when he last pitched. In 17 games, CP posted a win-loss record of 4-6 with an ERA of 4.77. I know what you're thinking, 4-6 is a pretty crappy record, and you know what, I agree. What encourages me is the 4.77 ERA. Let's not forget that last year, Randy Johnson went 17-11 as a Yankee. His ERA was 5 on the money. Hey, Josh Beckett went 16-11 for the Red Sox and his ERA was 5.01. CP's record in 2005 was largely affected by the Yankees poor performance in the first half of the season. If CP had the 2007 Yankee lineup behind him in 2005, his record would have seen a dramatic improvement. Pitchers with high ERAs love run support. Just ask Johnson and Beckett. Again, Johnson won 17 games in 2006 with an ERA of 5. If you ask me, the 2007 Yankee lineup is much more potent than the 2006 lineup. If CP can keep his ERA in the 4-5 range, which I think he can, he will no doubt post a record similar to that of Johnson and Beckett. He'll have one of the best lineups ever assembled there to bail him out. What Yankee fan wouldn't love 15-17 wins from CP?
I'm extremely glad that the Yankee brass had the good sense to give Josh Phelps a much-deserved roster spot. Boy, he earned it. I've liked Phelps ever since he was in the Jays organization. Cashman made a nice move when he plucked Phelps away from the Orioles in the Rule 5 draft. If anyone out there can make for keeping Andy Phillips, I'd love to hear it. Just look at the spring numbers. At last look, Phelps was hitting .389 with an OPS of 1.056. Phillips hit .192 with an OPS of .384. I was never much of a Phillips fan. I only saw him as an inexpensive, low-quality back-up. Guys like that are a dime a dozen. Phelps has a much higher upside. It was the right move. No question. Lucky for the Yanks, Phillips passed through waivers, so technically, he's still a Yankee and can report to AAA Scranton. I'd honestly like to see Phelps become the regular starter over Dougie M. I know defense wins championships, and Doug is arguably one of, if not the best defensive first baseman in the game, but there is so much more to gain with Phelps bat in the lineup. My suggestions? For starters I'd play Mientkiewicz whenever Wang pitches and I'd play Phelps whenever Pavano pitches. Wang will benefit from the glove. Pavano will likely need the run support. Torre is no dummy, so I'm sure he'll manage it the right way. And would you look at that? Phelps just went yard against the Tigers. He's raised his average to .405. Can you dig it? Yes you can.
The Yankee bullpen is looking freaking phenomenal. Bruney, Henn, Vizcaino, Proctor, Myers, Farnsworth, and of course the anchor, the great-one, Mariano Rivera. This spring they've yielded 15 earned runs in 63 innings pitched. For the math-challenged out there, that's an ERA of 2.14. What makes that even more impressive is that Brian Bruney gave up 6 of the earned runs. Remove him from the equation and you've got a collective ERA of 1.47. Say it with my folks, and don't be shy, it's awesome. And Mariano has yet to give up a run this spring. The addition of a new change-up makes Mo so much more dangerous. He's shown so signs of slowing down. The greatest ever? I say so.
Despite Wang's injury, the Yankee rotation is looking sharp also. I've already talked about CP. Pettitte's spring ERA was 0.00. Moose has looked like typical Moose. And Igawa is looking better and better with each start. As I write this, he's shutting down the Tigers in the spring finale. It's going to be interesting to see how he does this season. I'm going on record right now, and stating that come season's end, Igawa will have had the better season than fellow Japanese import, the over-hyped Daisuke Matsuzaka. He'll definitely win more games than Matsuzaka. You can take that to the bank. And to those that think the Red Sox starting rotation is superior to the Yankees, I implore you to go check out Judas Priest's album "Screaming For Vengeance" and listen to track 8. It's the jam y'all.
As I stated up above, the 2007 Yankee lineup is much better than it was in 2006. I'll take Abreu over Sheffield any day of the week. I'm looking forward to a full year of Bobby Abreu in RF. He's having a monster spring, hitting over .400 and his bat seems to have a little of its pop back. Giambi will benefit from being a full-time DH. Melky can fill-in at any OF position if anyone needs a day off. And despite all the negativity surrounding A-Rod, I think this is the year he officially earns his stripes. He came into camp a lot leaner than he was in years past and that will no doubt help his defense as he'll be more agile and more flexible. He has a lot to prove, and if he really wants to stay in New York, he's going to put up some monster numbers. Hopefully, the boo-birds are absent from the Bronx.
The only thing that bums me out about this season is that as of right now, there is no Bernie Williams. Bernie has been a Yankee staple for pretty much my entire adult life. It's sad that after 16 seasons, Bernie's tenure with the Yankees has come to an end. I'm still holding out hope that we might see Bernie back in Pinstripes at some point this season, but I don't really see it happening. I am glad that he isn't suiting up in another uniform. That would be just weird. All the best Bernie.
The worst is over. The dark clouds have passed and what I like to refer to as "the void" (November through March) has been filled. Baseball is back, and if you're reading this blog I'm sure you'll agree with me when I say "LET'S PLAY BALL!!!"
Peace, love and Pinstripes.
J

Surprise, Surprise, Surprise

As mentioned here in the Boogie Down 1 short month ago, the Red Sox have announced that Jonathan Papelbon will again assume the role of their closer. Here's what I said back in February:
"And what would my blog be without a little Red Sox talk. I'm not sure if there is any truth to this rumor, but a guy at work was telling me that the Sox have decided on their closer, they're just not announcing it yet. He said it was mentioned on ESPN, but I didn't see it. Apparently, it'll be Jonathan Papelbon. Let him start, let him close. I don't care. I personally see him getting lit up this year, especially if he starts. As a closer, he'll be alright, but an ERA of 2.5-3.5 is in the cards for him. If you think he's going to dominate and have another sub 1.00 ERA, come talk to me in October, so I can say I told you so. The league will figure him out."
Like I said back then, let him start, let him close, it won't matter. I don't think he has any chance of duplicating the success he had last season. And I wouldn't be surprised if like last year, his arm/shoulder burns out sometime late in the season, regardless of the precautions that the Sox take with the hurler. It should be interesting to see how Julian Tavarez performs as the Sox 5th starter. So much for the Sox rotation being far superior to the Yankees. As I said a few weeks back, at best the Sox rotation was on par with the Yankees. I think the Sox took a step back here pitching wise. In 10 short days, we'll begin to find out if I'm right.
And hair or not, Papelbon will always be Private Pyle to me.
J-Boogie

Kick Me In The Grill

Oh Manny. ManRam must be strapped for cash. He's selling his grill on EBay. The grill comes with an autographed ball signed by Manny. The current high bid is $99,999,999.00. Something tells me that's not a legit bid. Any why the 2nd highest bidder hasn't come in and bumped it up 99 cents is beyond me. Anyway, message to Manny: Do the right thing and give this, or the proceeds, to charity. You make $20 million plus.
By all accounts, this sounds legit. The best part of the listing are the pictures with Manny and the grill. Hysterical.
http://cgi.ebay.com/Manny-Ramirez-JENN-AIR-Grill_W0QQitemZ120099426399QQcategoryZ204QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
J
ps- sign up for the all-MLBlogger Yahoo fantasy baseball league. See the previous post

A-Rod Rumor

According to HalosHeaven.com, the Yanks and Angels have a deal worked out that would send A-Rod to the Angels for Jared Weaver, Dustin Moseley, and Jose Molina. I really hope Cashman is smarter than that b/c in my eyes, that deal blows like my cousin Brianne when she appeared in Nip/Tuck (sorry, I love the reference).
For starters, what need could their possibly be for Jose Molina. A soon-to-be 32 year old catcher that would no doubt serve as the backup to Posada. A career OPS of .626. There's a turn on. And Moseley. Admittedly, I don't know much about the cat, but do the Yankees really need another mid-20s starting pitcher when they already have so many? Jared Weaver had a solid debut and all, but he is a Weaver, and we Yankee fans remember his brother Jeff's go-around in Pinstripes. Don't get me wrong, Jared by most accounts has the stuff to be a top-level starter. But again, do the Yankees really need another young starter?
This deal sounds so preposterous that I can't buy it. I don't fault the Yankees for trying to shop A-Rod around. If they honestly feel he's bouncing after 2K7, why not try to get something in return? But there's a lot more to be had than Weaver, Moseley, and Molina. I hope this is idle chatter, b/c this deal, if it happened as stated, would be horrible for the bombers in my opinion. That would be a huge loss in offensive production for a marginal gain in the rotation. There are young enough arms stockpiled on the farm.
We'll have to wait and see.
Peace, love, and Pinstripes.
J

Thank God For Tax Returns

With the start of the season rapidly approaching, today was a good day to drop some coin on the necessities for the upcoming season. I picked up 36 official MLB baseballs for autographs. If anyone is ever looking for baseballs, the place to go is Anaconda Sports. 3 dozen balls plus tax and shipping and it comes out to less than $10 a ball. You can't really beat that price. Sure you don't get the pre-packaged ball-cube, but you can buy a much higher quality cube for far less than the difference. I highly recommend them for anyone looking to buy official balls in quantity.
I also picked up one of the new Yankee BP jerseys. I really like it with the white on the jersey. Much better than the all blue BP jerseys. I'd pick up one of the official game jerseys, but something about wearing a $200 shirt that will get beer spilled all over it doesn't sound like a good idea. And I'm not a replica jersey kind-of-guy, especially a Yankee one with the name on it. Like the new BP hats, they're not for me.
Peace, love and Pinstripes.
J-Boog

Jeff Karstens Is Your American Idol

For those of you that are watching (or got to watch) tonight's Yankees/Twins spring training game, how awesome did Jeff Karstens look? Man that kid looked sharp. He's looked awesome all spring. His spring totals are: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K . I know it's only spring training, but it's quite impressive nonetheless.
The Yankees have set themselves up rather nicely for the future of the rotation. Karstens, Clippard, Hughes, Sanchez. What was once a pretty barren farm system is blossoming into one of the league's best, with young arms o'plenty.
I don't know how many people are familiar with the game Diamond Mind Baseball. It's kind of like Strat-O-Matic. It's a simulation based baseball game that's based more on stats, than on your typical game that has a lot to do with hand-eye coordination and button pressing. It's a pretty respected company. They've been asked to create teams and run simulations for many different projects. Every year, they release a projection disk for the game. They run simulations and post the results, and usually they're spot on. ESPN posts their projections every year, and I think they even used them once for a greatest teams tournament. Or maybe that was USA Today. Anyway, they've yet to run their official projections, but the disk is out and some of the gamers have run their own simulations. Here's the link to one. For those too lazy to look, here were the results of the AL East, based on a 50-season simulation. It's the avg. number of wins, followed by division titles, followed by wild card births.
AL East NYA 96.20 37/7 TOR 90.48 10/13 BOS 85.30 3/8 BAL 75.76 0/1 TB 69.20 0/0
Now I know this isn't an exact science, but it's nice to see that it's not only Yankee fans that don't give the BoSox much of a chance in 2007. It should be interesting to see their official results when they've completed their sims. Regardless, we don't need a computer to tell us what we already now, right?
Peace, love and Pinstripes.
J-Boogie

A Tale Of Two Cities

I love all the smack talk from Red Sox fans how they have a superior starting rotation. It's getting me back into the blogging swing o'things. I think it's going to be hee-freaking-sterical when they finish in 3rd again and they all realize that their rotation, while solid, wasn't all they thought it would be. It's definitely not the best rotation in MLB. Some might even say, like me, that they don't even have the best rotation in their division. Personally, I think they have a rotation that is slightly below that of the Yankees. Let's take a look, shall we. Buckle up, it's going to be a long ride.
Curt Schilling is without a doubt one of the game's better pitchers. Some might say the same honor applies to Mike Mussina. The two had comparable years last year, each going 15-7, with Mussina besting the Schillmeister in the ERA department, 3.51 to 3.97. If you toss out an injury plagued 2005 and what I assume was an injury plagued 1994, Schilling had his worst year statistically since 1993, when he went 16-7 and had an ERA of 4.02. While Schilling is digressing, Mussina improved on his numbers, having his best year since 2003. His ERA dropped almost a point, his WHIP was down .26, and opponents batting average dropped 43 points from the 2006 campaign. This was due likely in part to a modification in the way he throws his changeup. To say, or even think, that Schilling is primed to have a better year than Mussina, is ridiculous. I'd rather go into battle with the Moose any day.
Tim Wakefield vs. Andy Pettitte. I'm sorry but even the most biased of baseball fans will tell you there is no comparison between the two. Wakefield is primarily a knuckleballer, which can be either hit or miss. Sometimes you got it working, sometimes you don't. As a whole, Wakefield has it working more often than not but last year, it was evident he didn't have it working as well, kicking in for a 7-11 record. He didn't have a horrible year by any means. Bur far from remarkable. He also missed a third or so of the season with if memory serves me correctly, a rib injury? So now durability is a factor. He's not exactly a spring chicken. Many will argue that Andy Pettitte's 2006 campaign wasn't anything worth remembering, and it wasn't. But the second half of his year was miles better than the first half. Pettitte's ERA through the end of July last year was 5.18. Over his last 12 starts, he posted an ERA of 2.39, and dropped that ERA almost a full point to 4.20. Whatever kinks he had in his mechanics, were obviously corrected. Andy will undoubtedly suffer from making the jump back to the AL, but I don't anticipate it having a large impact. He's returning to a place he's familiar with. And I'm sorry but Yankee Stadium benefits LH pitchers a lot more than the friendly confines of Minute Maid park. Without question, Pettitte wins this battle.
Moving to the the battle of the ex-Marlins, Beckett v. Pavano. Josh Beckett didn't exactly make a smooth transition to the AL. He found himself at the end of the season winning 16 games, but posting an ERA of 5.01. Not exactly stellar. He yielded more HRs, struck out fewer batters, and allowed more baserunners than he he did in previous seasons. And he did all of this "blister-free." He did lead the league in fist pumps. That's always a plus. The potential is there as we saw in Florida, but the same can be said for Carl Pavano. CP hasn't exactly been embraced by Yankee fans, present company included, but he has the potential to get it done. In his 2 years with the Yankees, we've only seen CP 17 times. He missed all of 2007 and 2006 was an injury-plagued campaign. He wasn't exactly stellar on the hill in his 17 outings, going 4-6, but he only had an ERA of 4.77, 1/4 of a point below Beckett's first year in the AL. So despite allowing more baserunners and having opponents hit better than .300 against him during his first year as a Yankee, CP posted a lower ERA than Beckett. And oh yeah, he was pitching hurt. Perhaps if CP had the 2006 Yankee lineup batting for him, the record would have been a little better. Well, he'll have an even better lineup "going to bat" for him in 2007. Even with a less than stellar performance, he'll probably win 12-15 if he pitches healthy. Josh Beckett isn't the only one who can benefit from run support. See Randy Johnson. If you're quick to dismiss Pavano, you should also be quick to dismiss Beckett.
The youngsters. Wang vs. Papelbon. These two are hard to compare as Papelbon was a closer in 2006. Paps had a phenomenal year in 2006. An ERA less than 1.00. His WHIP, a minuscule 0.78. Those numbers aren't anything to mess with. But if you expect those numbers to repeat themselves as a starter, you've got another thing coming. I'm a firm believer that, on a whole, as batters get more acquainted with a pitcher, the worse the pitcher does. I think it's easier for a batter to make the necessary adjustments to a pitcher, than vice versa. How often do you see rookies blow the doors off of teams only to fall apart as more starts are put under his belt. It happens quite often to the Yankees. The majority of the American League faced Papelbon a handful of times. When you've got good stuff as a pitcher and you only face a guy 3 times a year, you're in a good position. I personally think the more Paps pitches, the more likely his numbers will rise to mediocrity, or best case scenario for him, to an ERA of 3.75 to 4.25. I personally think the biggest mistake the Sox are making this year is converting him to a starter. It's going to bite you. Chein-Ming Wang on the other hand, already has completed two tour of duties. The league has seen him. The league has had their chance to adjust. In my opinion, it's a lot tougher to adjust to a guy that can throw a phenomenal sinker ball, which Wang can throw. Wang has a career record of 27-11. His ERA is below average. He keeps the ball in the park and the DP is his best friend. As long as the sinker is working, which he's shown isn't a concern, he is knocking on the door of 20 wins. Wang won 19 games in 2006. He was the runner-up for the Cy Young. He's not a chump. Many say he is legitimately the Yankee's best pitcher. Papelbon is a good closer, no question. To assume that automatically makes him a great starter, that's absurd. It's a lot more likely for a mediocre starter to become a great closer, than the other way around. See Byung-Hyun Kim. When the smoke clears, Wang will have the better year.
And finally, the battle of the Orient. I won't even try to make a case that Kei Igawa is better than Daisuke Matsuzaka. It'd be a waste. Matsuzaka, by everyone's take, is awesome. Maybe so, but that doesn't translate into immediate success here in MLB. Plenty of highly-touted Japanese pitchers have come to MLB and turned out to be one-hit wonders. The last time I saw Hideo Nomo he was strolling through a Columbus mall on his way to the GAP. See also Hideki Irabu. What you expect, is not always what you get. As for Igawa though, to dismiss him as inadequate is preposterous. He was the Japanese strikeout leader in 2002, 2004, and 2006. A career ERA of 3.15. His 2006 season saw him go 14-9 with an ERA of 2.97. By all accounts, Igawa is a back-of-the-rotation pitcher. But Yankee scouts saw value in him to bring him on as a starter. But if he falters, in steps possibly Tyler Clippard, Humberto Sanchez, or maybe even highly-touted Philip Hughes. all of which by many accounts, aren't back of the rotation caliber. Our weakest link can be replaced with better options. I don't think the Sox can say that. Decent youngsters, but none arguably better than who they've got now.
Man that was a lot to write, but I think I've sufficiently debunked the myth that the Sox have a great rotation and one that is better than the Yankees. J-Boogie: Mythbuster. Can you dig it? At best, in my opinion, the Sox rotation is on par with the Yankee rotation. I'd rather go into battle with the Yankee staff, than I would the Red Sox staff. I'm of course biased in that decision, but I'd think even those with no attachment to either club (and non-haters) would be inclined to agree. If any of you read this and care to weigh in, by all means, please do.
I'm starting to feel it. 24 days and counting.....
J-Boogie