The Red Sox & Their Fans' Misguided Confidence

As promised, a blog entry. Wow, 2 days in a row. The kid is on fire.

I listen to a lot of baseball talk on XM radio. I probably listen to it for 10-11 hours per day. A lot of the talk has been about the Red Sox and what their fans perceive to be the greatest team ever assembled. I think it's funny how overly-confident they are about what I consider to be marginal upgrades. Ya know? They remind me a lot of some Yankee fans. I think we can all say over the last several years we've thought going into the season the Yankees were the best team ever, only to have them miss the playoffs or lose in the ALDS. Building a team that's great on paper often doesn't translate into glory. You think Sox fans would have noticed that by now.

Now don't get me wrong. The Sox improved their team by trading for Adrian Gonzalez and by signing Carl Crawford. But they didn't improve by leaps and bounds. They did lose both Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez. Here's a quick comparison:

• Beltre/V-Mart = 338 for 1082 (.312), 81 2B, 3 3B, 48 HR, 181 RBI
• Crawford/Gonzalez = 360 for 1191 (.302), 63 2B, 13 3B, 50 HR, 191 RBI

Pretty close, eh? And yes I know, different parks, blah blah blah. Either way, you're not going to see the monumental gains you're expecting. Here's another point to consider: V-Mart was a catcher and his production is a lot harder to replace than that of a LF. Another point: Crawford isn't going to have the Red Sox to run all over either so expect fewer SBs. Again, marginal upgrades in my opinion.

The Red Sox really need those guys to over-perform. They also need Youkilis and Pedroia to bounce back from their injuries. Why, you ask? They need as much offense as they can get to make up for what I consider to be an average/below average starting rotation. On names alone their rotation is pretty good. But let's face it, after Lester and Buchholz, it's pretty bad.

• Josh Beckett = 6-6 w/5.78 ERA, 1.54 WHIP & 20 HR allowed in 127.2 IP
• John Lackey = 14-11 w/4.40 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
• Daisuke Matsuzaka = 9-6 w/4.69 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
• Tim Wakefield = 4-10 w/5.34 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

Ok, maybe pretty bad is an overstatement. But they're not good. I've heard many a Red Sox fan exclaim, "They'll bounce back. That was an off year." Blah blah blah. If that argument has any merit to it, then I can make the case that A.J. Burnett will also. While I'm at it, Jeter, A-Rod, and Teixeira will all perform to the numbers on the back of their baseball cards. No way those 3 all hit .270ish again, right? That argument is weak. Either way you want to slice it, the Red Sox rotation is not as good as the Yankees. Assuming of course Andy Pettitte comes back (which he will). If he doesn't, then I'll concede that point based on the 3 for-sure Yankee starters (Sabathia, Hughes & Burnett).

Do the Red Sox remind you of anyone? Maybe the Yankees from 2001-2009? Think about it. Their lineup is stacked with all-stars. Their rotation, while good on paper and high on name recognition, is for the most part, average to below average. The goal is to score a lot of runs because the pitchers are going to give up a lot. Sound familiar Sox fans? Your team is basically following the Yankees formula. Not surprising. the Sox and their fans suffer from a massive inferiority/jealousy complex. Can someone remind me how that formula for success worked out for the Yankees? Oh yeah. No rings and a bunch of first round eliminations from the playoffs. Good luck with that.

Having said all of that, I don't see why people are touting the Red Sox as heavy favorites. Based on the current rosters (Yankees without Pettitte), I'd give the Sox the edge. But not nearly to the extent that the run-of-the-mill Red Sox fan thinks. I'm failing to see where all of the confidence and chest pumping is coming from. I really am. Allow me to further explain.

If Pettitte comes back, the Yankees have pretty much the same rotation as they did last season. That rotation led them to 95 wins and the wild card. The Sox rotation, which is the same as last season, got them to 89 wins. The additions of Crawford and Gonzalez only marginally make up for the loss of Martinez and Beltre. I don't think you can assume that a healthier Sox team could have made up for the 6 game difference. There's no way of knowing what would have happened. Injuries are part of the game. Every team has their share of them, some more so then others, and the good teams rise above them. That's baseball.

So someone explain it to me because I don't get it. Why are Sox fans overly confident about their team? Maybe their a little better on paper than the Yankees right now, but only by a small margin. I don't see how anybody can call them heavy favorites. Sox fans should have also learned by now that the best teams on paper (see the 2001-2009 Yankees) don't often win. I don't understand how their confidence level is so high and I look forward to saying "I told you so" come October.

Peace, love and Pinstripes,

J-Boogie

The Red Sox Rotation Is Not Very Good And Neither Are The Red Sox.

Leading up to the start of the season all I heard was how great the Red Sox rotation was. This talk came from many of the hosts on XM's MLB channel and of course, Red Sox fans themselves. I know it's a small sample size and the numbers could, and probably will, change very quickly with a string of good outings, but right now the Red Sox rotation is so far from being the best in baseball. Though it's probably not, maybe it's a sign of what's to come. Yankee fans can dream right? So let's take a look at the numbers from Boston's awesome starting staff:

• Josh Beckett: 18.2 IP, 21 H, 8 ER, 5 BB, 13 K, 3.86 ERA
• John Lackey: 16 IP, 19 H, 10 ER, 7 BB, 8 K, 5.63 ERA
• Jon Lester: 16 IP, 21 H, 15 ER, 9 BB, 14 K, 8.44 ERA
• Tim Wakefield: 12.1 IP, 16 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 5.11 ERA
• Clay Buchholz: 10 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 6 BB, 8 K, 1.80 ERA

Add that all up and what do you get? A team that's 4-9 and 6 games out of first. You get a team that's lost 5 straight and is 1-6 against their 2 biggest division rivals. You get a team that's 1-6 at home. You get a team that's tied for the 2nd worst record in all of baseball. That's right. Their record is worse than the Mets. Ouch. How ya like dem apples there Red Sox fans?

Do I expect Boston to be this bad all year long? No. Do I think their rotation is as bad as they've pitched? No. Is it fun to crack on the Red Sox whenever I can. Absolutely!

Peace, love and Pinstripes,

J-Boogie

Let's Get Ready To Rumble

It's that time of year again. Round 1 of what is by far the greatest rivalry in all of sports. Red Sox vs. Yankees. I'll admit it. For me, this rivalry isn't what it once was. The peak of the rivalry was 2003-2004. Boone's HR and the great Yankee collapse. Since then it's become a little watered down and slightly on the boring side. It seems like they play way too much and way too often. They haven't met in the playoffs since 2004 so there have been no do or die meetings between the two. The fire for the rivalry still burns. It's just not as hot. The Red Sox were definitely the better team last year. Every expert also favors them this year as well. I like being the underdog. The roles are reversed and I like it.

The pitching matchups for the series are as follows:

Game 1: Chien-Ming Wang (2-0, 1.38 ERA) vs. Clay Buchholz (0-1, 5.40 ERA)

The Yankees have never faced Buchholz before and the Yankees typically struggle with pitchers they've never faced before. Considering this season's struggles at the plate, this might be a tough one. Wang has fared well against Boston in his career. He's 3-1 with a 4.11 ERA in 5 career starts against the Sox. He's made 2 starts at Fenway, where he's 1-1 with an ERA of 6.35. Wang's numbers in Fenway aren't great, but baseball isn't played on paper. He's off to a great start so far and the Yankees will likely need another solid outing from their ace.

Game 2: Mike Mussina (1-1, 3.09 ERA) vs Josh Beckett (0-1, 9.64 ERA)

This game is a total question mark. Which version of each pitcher will show up? Moose has done well so far but we saw this from him last year. He'd have a string of good outings followed by a string of poor ones. Moose has done pretty well in his career vs. Boston. He's 19-15 with an ERA of 3.66 in 52 career starts. Different times, different teams, different Moose. So who knows? Beckett's spring was cut short by back problems and that might cause problems for the Sox ace. The weather forecast for Saturday is a high of 49 and showers. It's not ideal weather for either but I think it would have more of an impact on Beckett than it would Mussina. Beckett's first start was in a temperature controlled climate (Rogers Centre in Toronto). He hasn't been subjected to the elements yet. It could bring up more back problems if he's not fully recovered. The Yankees have also been able to hit Beckett. The old Yankee killer ain't what he used to be. Beckett has a career ERA of 6.56 against the Yankees. His career WHIP against them is 1.74 with an OBA of .303. Not too shabby. But again, the games aren't played on paper.

Game 3: Phil Hughes (0-1, 5.00 ERA) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-0, 1.47 ERA)

ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. This will be the Sox first look at Hughes. He's been inconsistent in his first 2 starts this year. It works in his favor that the Sox have never gotten a firsthand look at him. It often takes a few at-bats for a hitter to adjust to a pitcher they've never faced. Hughes has good stuff so he just might give the Sox bats fits. I thought the same about Chase Wright and we all know how that went. I'm still not sold on Dice-K. He may be off to a good start but I don't think he's all he's cracked up to be (see Hideo Nomo or Hideki Irabu). He faced the Yankees 4 times last year. His ERA against them was high but the Yankees didn't exactly knock him around. His biggest problem when he faced them was issuing too many free passes. The Yankees haven't exactly been patient at the plate thus far and that might remediate any control problems Dice-K runs into.

It has the making of a great series. Neither team has been exactly knocking the cover off the ball. Both teams are 5-5 and coming off a win. The Sox will be a little more fresh as they avoid having to travel for the series. The weather doesn't look favorable for Friday and Saturday as rain is in the forecast. Sunday's weather looks a little better but it's a night game and it could get chilly. I always think that the Sox will take 2 of 3 at home, and vice-versa when the games are in New York. I think the Yankees win Saturday. The Sox win Sunday. And tonight's game is a toss-up. I give a slight edge to the Sox because their at home, didn't travel, and the Yankees lackluster offense will probably struggle against a starter they've never faced.

Be back later with pre-game thoughts.

J-Boogie

Pot Meet Kettle, Kettle Meet Pot

I had logged out of my Hotmail account and it redirected me to the MSN.com homepage. A link titled "America's (Most Hated) Team" caught my eye. I clicked on it expecting to read another anti-Yankee diatribe, which was an educated guess based on the fact that the entire world hates the Yankees. Much to my surprise, I was treated to an excellent article about the Boston Red Sox, and how the team, and their fans, are turning into what they claim to hate so much. That of course being, drum roll please, the New York Yankees. We talked about this a lot at the beginning of the year and their transformation into "the organization they hate so much but won't admit to being exactly like" is still continuing. I'd like to think that any Red Sox fan, who reads it with an open mind and sans their pair of "red" colored glasses, will undoubtedly agree that they are no different than everything and everyone they supposedly hate so much.
So give it a read. It's a great piece.
Wow, 3 posts in 3 days. What's gotten into this kid?
J-Boogie