What Will It Take?

Greetings from cloud nine. I'm still hanging out up here after the Sox beatdown I'll be coming down soon. Not because I'm expecting a Yankee loss, but because it's time to move on and focus on the next series against Seattle, losers of 11 straight. Now, I fully expect the Yankees to lose to the M's. It might even be tonight. There's no reasoning behind that other than it always seems like a team snaps its losing streak against the team I like. Remember the streak the Royals snapped earlier this season? It was against the Yankees.
In the comment section of my last thread, Levelboss was wondering how many wins it would take to knock Boston out of it, or better put, how well would the Red Sox have to play to get back into it. Now, I've never been a fan of this type of speculation because there is no way of accurately predicting how well a team will do. You can only assume, so will do that. Since the Yankees win the division in the event of a tie, we'll figure on what is needed for the Sox to win the division.

1. If the Yankees play .600 ball over the next 38 games, they'll win 23 games and go 23-15. The Sox would have to play .810 ball and go 30-7 over their last 37. The Yankees are currently playing at a .610 clip, so this scenario could very well play out in terms of an expected Yankee win total. The question is can the Sox play .810? I think we all know the answer to that.
2. If the Yankees play .500 over the next 38 games, they'll go 19-19. The Sox would have to go 26-11, a winning percentage of .703. The Sox are currently a .556 team. They'd have to play out of their shoes and the Yanks would have to be average for this to happen. As a comparison, the best team in baseball, the Tigers, are currently playing .640 ball.
3. Let's say that the Sox play at a .600 clip, which is very possible. They'd end up with another 22 wins, and go 22-15. To catch the Yanks, the Yanks would have to go 15-23, or play at a .395 clip. That too is unlikely.
4. Let's assume the Sox win .556 percent of their remaining games. That's a record of 21-16. The Yankees would have to go 14-24 for the Sox to catch them. That's a winning percentage of .368. Considering that the Royals are the only team in MLB to have a winning percentage worse than that at .362, the Yankees would basically have to be the worst team in baseball over the last quarter of the season for the Sox to catch them, assuming of course that the Sox play to their current winning percentage. I think it's a pretty safe bet that the Yankees will be better than .368. So the Sox would have to step it up and play a lot better than they are now. A lot better.

So what does all that mean? Not much. But it does add a little perspective to well, or how poor, each has to play for a reversal of fortune. It's pretty impossible to assume anything when it comes to baseball. We all know the unlikeliest of events can play out. For example, sweeping 5 straight in Fenway or losing 4 straight in the ALCS when you are up 3-0. The impossible is possible, and when it comes to Boston and New York, you can't rule out anything.
The only number that has any bearing on things right now is the "magic number." For those unfamiliar with the calculation, you take the number of the team's remaining games, add 1, and then subtract the number of games they're ahead in the loss column. For the Yankees that calculates to a magic number of 32 (38+1-7). That number goes down by 1 every time the Yankees win and/or the Red Sox lose. 32 combinations of Yankee wins and Sox losses, and the Yankees will be the AL East champion 9 times running.
Peace, love, and pinstripes.
J-Boogie
edited to add on 8/23: I corrected some of the figures as I miscaculated the remaining games. SO the numbers are up-to-date. I also added some additional text.