A Look at The Sox/Yanks

There seems to be a lot of back and forth between Yanks fans and Sox fans. I'm over at the Red Sox Chick's blog reading her post today about the Sox sweep of KC and that the Yankees dropped one to Seattle, with the Sox having a slim 1.5 game lead. I understand how each set of fans think that there team is better. And you can argue a case for each being the better team. Sox fans like to draw comparison to the fact the the Yankees lost a game to the Royals and that the Sox beat the teams they are supposed to and the Yankees don't. The Sox were great in interleague, blah blah blah. Well interleague is over and I looked at the schedule, neither teams have any games scheduled with National League opponents. Let's take a look at how the two stack up against the AL as that's what is left on the docket.

Now, this is by no means scientific, but it does lend to the thought that the Sox will fold and the Yanks have better than average odds of winning the division. Just some food for thought:

• Against AL teams, the Yankees are 24-20 (.545) against teams with a record better than .500. The Sox are 18-24 (.429) against teams that are better than .500. Last time I checked, teams that are below .500 don't make the playoffs.
• Against AL teams that are worse than .500, the Yankees are 21-9 (.700) and the Sox are 23-10 (.697). Look at that, the Yankees are better against those teams as well.

What have we learned from the above? The Sox are not as good as the Yankees when playing AL teams. Too bad interleague is over. Let's take this a step further.

• The Yankees have 41 games left against teams above .500, and 29 against those below. For argument's sake, let's say they play them at the exact same winning percentage they've done to date. That will result in approximately 43 wins for the Yanks.
• The Sox have 39 games left against teams above .500 and 30 against those below. Again, we'll assume they play to the same winning percentage. That comes up to about 38 wins.

Do the math and you'll see that the Yankees pick up about 5 games and they are only 1.5 back. Assuming the above, the Yanks would end with the better record. But, the teams aren't playing the exact same teams they've played already. But let's assume they do. If you take into account the team's winning percentage against the AL teams they've played already, you get the following, and you have to trust my math is correct:

• The Yankees would win approximately 44 games.
• The Sox would win approximately 36 games, not counting the 6 they have to play against the Angels, the one team they haven't played yet. Heck, let's give the Sox all 6 of those games. The total moves to 42 games.

The Yanks pick up 2 games and are 1.5 back. Again, things favor the the Yankees. Let's take a look at the teams statistically shall we. I think this is through yesterday:

• Offensively, the Sox get the slight nod, but barely. The Yankees have a higher AVG by .002. The Sox have a higher OBP and SLG, but only by .006.
• Believe it or not, the Yankees have the better pitching staff, statistically speaking. The Yankee ERA is lower by .22. The team WHIP is lower by .03. Opponents also have a lower batting average against Yankee pitchers. The Yankees OPS for the staff is lower by .39.
• Defensively, the Sox are better. We won't even debate that.

So what does this all mean? In the grand scheme of things, not much, because the games aren't played on paper. If they were, it's obvious who the winner would be. This shows that the Sox, while good, aren't as good as the Yankees when it comes to playing the AL. The argument that the Sox were better in interleague and that they beat the teams they're supposed to and the Yankees didn't, is hogwash. I think what was outlined above shows that pretty convincingly. All the Sox have on the Yanks is the better interleague record. And that's over. Since interleague play ended the Yanks are 9-4 and the Sox are 7-7. In a short 2 weeks, the Yankees picked up 2.5 games. There are still 70 some odd games to go. All signs point to the Yankees being able to win the division. The 1.5 game lead the Sox currently have doesn't look to be enough. But come October, it'll be nice to look fondly back and say "hey, do you remember that 1.5 game lead we had in July?" That was nice." Have fun with that.
Oh, if you take into account that the Yankees have been without Matsui and Sheffield, and have missed "the regulars" on and off, it's even more impressive. If those guys were in the lineup, I'd like to think that the Yanks would have won at least 2 of the games they lost. Guess what? They're coming back!
Be forewarned Red Sox Nation. The sky will be falling shortly.
Peace, love and pinstripes.
J-Boogie