A Tale Of Two Cities

I love all the smack talk from Red Sox fans how they have a superior starting rotation. It's getting me back into the blogging swing o'things. I think it's going to be hee-freaking-sterical when they finish in 3rd again and they all realize that their rotation, while solid, wasn't all they thought it would be. It's definitely not the best rotation in MLB. Some might even say, like me, that they don't even have the best rotation in their division. Personally, I think they have a rotation that is slightly below that of the Yankees. Let's take a look, shall we. Buckle up, it's going to be a long ride.
Curt Schilling is without a doubt one of the game's better pitchers. Some might say the same honor applies to Mike Mussina. The two had comparable years last year, each going 15-7, with Mussina besting the Schillmeister in the ERA department, 3.51 to 3.97. If you toss out an injury plagued 2005 and what I assume was an injury plagued 1994, Schilling had his worst year statistically since 1993, when he went 16-7 and had an ERA of 4.02. While Schilling is digressing, Mussina improved on his numbers, having his best year since 2003. His ERA dropped almost a point, his WHIP was down .26, and opponents batting average dropped 43 points from the 2006 campaign. This was due likely in part to a modification in the way he throws his changeup. To say, or even think, that Schilling is primed to have a better year than Mussina, is ridiculous. I'd rather go into battle with the Moose any day.
Tim Wakefield vs. Andy Pettitte. I'm sorry but even the most biased of baseball fans will tell you there is no comparison between the two. Wakefield is primarily a knuckleballer, which can be either hit or miss. Sometimes you got it working, sometimes you don't. As a whole, Wakefield has it working more often than not but last year, it was evident he didn't have it working as well, kicking in for a 7-11 record. He didn't have a horrible year by any means. Bur far from remarkable. He also missed a third or so of the season with if memory serves me correctly, a rib injury? So now durability is a factor. He's not exactly a spring chicken. Many will argue that Andy Pettitte's 2006 campaign wasn't anything worth remembering, and it wasn't. But the second half of his year was miles better than the first half. Pettitte's ERA through the end of July last year was 5.18. Over his last 12 starts, he posted an ERA of 2.39, and dropped that ERA almost a full point to 4.20. Whatever kinks he had in his mechanics, were obviously corrected. Andy will undoubtedly suffer from making the jump back to the AL, but I don't anticipate it having a large impact. He's returning to a place he's familiar with. And I'm sorry but Yankee Stadium benefits LH pitchers a lot more than the friendly confines of Minute Maid park. Without question, Pettitte wins this battle.
Moving to the the battle of the ex-Marlins, Beckett v. Pavano. Josh Beckett didn't exactly make a smooth transition to the AL. He found himself at the end of the season winning 16 games, but posting an ERA of 5.01. Not exactly stellar. He yielded more HRs, struck out fewer batters, and allowed more baserunners than he he did in previous seasons. And he did all of this "blister-free." He did lead the league in fist pumps. That's always a plus. The potential is there as we saw in Florida, but the same can be said for Carl Pavano. CP hasn't exactly been embraced by Yankee fans, present company included, but he has the potential to get it done. In his 2 years with the Yankees, we've only seen CP 17 times. He missed all of 2007 and 2006 was an injury-plagued campaign. He wasn't exactly stellar on the hill in his 17 outings, going 4-6, but he only had an ERA of 4.77, 1/4 of a point below Beckett's first year in the AL. So despite allowing more baserunners and having opponents hit better than .300 against him during his first year as a Yankee, CP posted a lower ERA than Beckett. And oh yeah, he was pitching hurt. Perhaps if CP had the 2006 Yankee lineup batting for him, the record would have been a little better. Well, he'll have an even better lineup "going to bat" for him in 2007. Even with a less than stellar performance, he'll probably win 12-15 if he pitches healthy. Josh Beckett isn't the only one who can benefit from run support. See Randy Johnson. If you're quick to dismiss Pavano, you should also be quick to dismiss Beckett.
The youngsters. Wang vs. Papelbon. These two are hard to compare as Papelbon was a closer in 2006. Paps had a phenomenal year in 2006. An ERA less than 1.00. His WHIP, a minuscule 0.78. Those numbers aren't anything to mess with. But if you expect those numbers to repeat themselves as a starter, you've got another thing coming. I'm a firm believer that, on a whole, as batters get more acquainted with a pitcher, the worse the pitcher does. I think it's easier for a batter to make the necessary adjustments to a pitcher, than vice versa. How often do you see rookies blow the doors off of teams only to fall apart as more starts are put under his belt. It happens quite often to the Yankees. The majority of the American League faced Papelbon a handful of times. When you've got good stuff as a pitcher and you only face a guy 3 times a year, you're in a good position. I personally think the more Paps pitches, the more likely his numbers will rise to mediocrity, or best case scenario for him, to an ERA of 3.75 to 4.25. I personally think the biggest mistake the Sox are making this year is converting him to a starter. It's going to bite you. Chein-Ming Wang on the other hand, already has completed two tour of duties. The league has seen him. The league has had their chance to adjust. In my opinion, it's a lot tougher to adjust to a guy that can throw a phenomenal sinker ball, which Wang can throw. Wang has a career record of 27-11. His ERA is below average. He keeps the ball in the park and the DP is his best friend. As long as the sinker is working, which he's shown isn't a concern, he is knocking on the door of 20 wins. Wang won 19 games in 2006. He was the runner-up for the Cy Young. He's not a chump. Many say he is legitimately the Yankee's best pitcher. Papelbon is a good closer, no question. To assume that automatically makes him a great starter, that's absurd. It's a lot more likely for a mediocre starter to become a great closer, than the other way around. See Byung-Hyun Kim. When the smoke clears, Wang will have the better year.
And finally, the battle of the Orient. I won't even try to make a case that Kei Igawa is better than Daisuke Matsuzaka. It'd be a waste. Matsuzaka, by everyone's take, is awesome. Maybe so, but that doesn't translate into immediate success here in MLB. Plenty of highly-touted Japanese pitchers have come to MLB and turned out to be one-hit wonders. The last time I saw Hideo Nomo he was strolling through a Columbus mall on his way to the GAP. See also Hideki Irabu. What you expect, is not always what you get. As for Igawa though, to dismiss him as inadequate is preposterous. He was the Japanese strikeout leader in 2002, 2004, and 2006. A career ERA of 3.15. His 2006 season saw him go 14-9 with an ERA of 2.97. By all accounts, Igawa is a back-of-the-rotation pitcher. But Yankee scouts saw value in him to bring him on as a starter. But if he falters, in steps possibly Tyler Clippard, Humberto Sanchez, or maybe even highly-touted Philip Hughes. all of which by many accounts, aren't back of the rotation caliber. Our weakest link can be replaced with better options. I don't think the Sox can say that. Decent youngsters, but none arguably better than who they've got now.
Man that was a lot to write, but I think I've sufficiently debunked the myth that the Sox have a great rotation and one that is better than the Yankees. J-Boogie: Mythbuster. Can you dig it? At best, in my opinion, the Sox rotation is on par with the Yankee rotation. I'd rather go into battle with the Yankee staff, than I would the Red Sox staff. I'm of course biased in that decision, but I'd think even those with no attachment to either club (and non-haters) would be inclined to agree. If any of you read this and care to weigh in, by all means, please do.
I'm starting to feel it. 24 days and counting.....
J-Boogie