Friday, November 3, 2006

I've Lost My Pinstriped Glasses

Derek Jeter didn't deserve the Gold Glove. There I said it. it doesn't feel good to say, but deep down, I know it to be true. I've been going back and forth trying to convince myself that Derek Jeter was the most deserving recipient of the AL Gold Glove at his position. I've looked at many stats, trying to twist them in his favor, and I just can't statistically validate his winning in my head. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad he won. What Yankee fan wouldn't be? But if I take off my "pinstriped" glasses and take a look at things objectively, I know the award should have been given to someone else when you look at the stats. I think anyone that can look at things objectively would agree.
Now I'm not saying that Jeter isn't good with the glove. I'm all about his defense. But to call him the league's best is a stretch. Let's statistically compare Jeter to Rangers SS Michael Young. If you take out the players that didn't qualify, Michael Young led the AL shortstops in fielding percentage. He bested Jeter by .006, .981 to Jeter's .975. Young had 137 more total chances than Derek did, and he committed 1 less error. Young took part in 113 double plays to Jeter's 81, though Young did play in 64 more defensive innings. Young had 111 more assists than Derek. Young's "zone rating" was .026 higher than Jeter's. .836 to .810. For those not familiar with zone rating, it was a measurement created by STATS, Inc. to show the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive zone. According to their measurement, Young had better range. Young also had a higher "range factor." 4.86 to Jeter's 4.14. Range factor is calculated by taking the # of putouts + assists and dividing it by the number of innings played. As you can see, Young statistically bests Jeter in the major defensive categories.
Let's compare Jeter to White Sox SS Juan Uribe. Uribe played in 162 fewer defensive innings than Jeter. Despite logging a lot less playing time, Uribe only had 6 less total chances. In 6 less total chances, he had 3 more putouts and 8 fewer assists than Derek. Jeter committed 1 more error than Uribe, which led to a slightly lower fielding percentage, .975 to Uribe's .977. Comparing zone factors, Uribe 4.70 to Jeter's 4.18. Taking a look at their zone ratings, Uribe beats Jeter .868 to .810. Uribe is another SS that is statistically superior to Derek.
There were only 9 SS that qualified on the defensive leaderboard according to ESPN. Jeter ranked 9th in range factor. He was 7th in zone rating. He was 4th in fielding percentage. In looking at these stats, I was hoping to validate Jeter as the top defensive shortstop, but it blew up in my face when I was doing statistical comparisons. So why did Derek win?
The keyword in all of this is "statistic." The Gold Gloves aren't awarded on any kind of statistical merit. The Gold Glove Award is awarded by Managers and coaches, which can't cast votes for their own players. Now perhaps they take a gander at the stats, but I doubt it. I can't speak for these guys, but if I put myself in their shoes, I'm voting on reputation and what I see day in and day out. How many times do we see Jeter on a highlight reel making an over-the-shoulder catch in shallow LF? Quite often. How often do we see Jeter backhanding a ball in the hole,doing a jump-turn throw in mid-air that's a perfect strike to first for the out? Quite often. We've seen Jeter dive into the stands for foul balls. We've all seen the play where he gets Jeremy Giambi out at the plate in the ALDS. Jeter has the reputation for being in the play and for making it. No other shortstop immediately comes to mind when I try and think of guys that exhibit that style of play. Let's face it folks. Other Managers and coaches respect Jeter's defense. So much so, that they awarded him with his 3rd straight Gold Glove.
And therein lies my dilemma. I can't statistically validate Jeter winning the award. But if the the league's Managers and coaches feel he's most deserving, who am I to argue with the people that know the game best? But I'm a math/numbers guy and my problem is I think defense is better determined in looking at the numbers than by going off reputation and by what I see on the highlight reel.
If you really look at it, you know i'm right. If you disagree, please try to convince me otherwise. I'm all for changing my mind on this. Jeter in my opinion is a good defensive shortstop, better than average. But he's not the best defensive shortstop. As painful it is for me to admit, that honor goes to Alex Gonzalez. I can't believe I just said that. I think I'm going to be sick.
J

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