Thursday, November 19, 2009

What Would You Do-ooh-ooh For A Hall-A-Day?

I read yesterday on MLBTradeRumors that per Jon Heyman, the Yankees have contacted the Blue Jays about Roy Halladay. Well duh. I could have written that and had a 99.9% chance of being right. This isn't anything to salivate over or get worked up about. Not yet anyway. The Yankees have to do their due-diligence and at least check in about Halladay's availability, especially now that the new Jays GM has said he'd trade Roy within the division. It wouldn't be good business if the Yankees didn't call and ask about it. I'm sure it was likely a routine call, something I'm sure Cashamn has done several times this offseason with different GMs. Until I hear something more substantial about it, I'm dismissing it as fodder.

I think the Yankees will become major players for Doc. There's no doubt that the Yanks will make competitive offers, if for nothing else, to drive up the price for everyone else. I think it's something they'll actually focus on sooner rather than later, especially if they want to be players for John Lackey. If the Yankees sign Lackey, I don't see them making a run at Halladay. That would be rather costly. But if you're going to make an offer to Lackey, why not go after Halladay, as their respective salaries will likely be in the same ballpark. I guess what the Yankees need to decide is if it's worth giving up players in addition to the salary or just go with the salary. Think of it as acquiring Johan Santana and CC Sabathia. The Mets had to trade top prospects for Santana in addition to paying him $100 million plus. The Yankees waited a year and signed CC as a free agent, thus keeping their prospects. Right now, it would obviously cost more to acquire Halladay as opposed to Lackey since Halladay can only be gotten via trade. You can roll the dice and hope Roy hits the free agent market next year but i think there is zero chance of that happening. Bottom line: if you want Roy Halladay you have to pony up the players.

I personally would love to see the Yankees land Halladay. But I don't want to see them pay through the nose for him. But if they want him I think they're going to have to. This will probably go down pretty much the same way things did when the Yankees were looking at trading for Johan Santana. It's going to cost at least 4 prospects. The Jays will probably ask for both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. If that's the case I walk away. i am fine with one of them going but not both. The Yanks would be wise to hold onto one of the youngsters. Trading both is a dealbreaker for me. If one has to go I hope it's Joba. I am really high on Hughes and I think he is now, and will always be, a better pitcher than Joba. I'm fine with them dealing either, but not both.

The 2nd piece of the puzzle is going to definitely be Austin Jackson. As high as I am on A-Jax, I'd be OK with him being included in a package. There's no guarantee that Jackson will ever materialize. And I think OFs are much easier to come by than stud starting pitchers.

The 3rd piece of the puzzle would probably have to be Jesus Montero. I'm not a fan of him being included but the Jays would be stupid not to ask for him. He's arguably the Yankees best prospect and he's a catcher. I'd like to see the Yankees find a way to hold onto him but I think it'll be tough to do, especially if they get in a bidding war with another team, namely the Red Sox. Perhaps Cashman can talk the Jays down into taking Austin Romine over Montero. The Yankees are going to be in need of a catcher very soon as Jorge Posada isn't going to be around much longer. The Yanks would be wise to keep the better of the two if at all possible.

The 4th piece, and I'd assume there will be a 4th piece, is probably going to end up being another pitching prospect. Someone like Ian Kennedy, Zach McAllister, or Andrew Brackman. Maybe the Jays would want a guy like Juan Miranda. The Yanks don't have a huge need for him with Mark Teixeira being on the squad.

So barring any creative deals, say where the Yankees take on a guy as a salary dump (Vernon Wells), i think it's going to take at least 4 guys to pry Halladay away from the Jays. I'm fine with that if it's the right 4 guys. I could live with it if the Yankees dealt Joba, Austin Jackson, Austin Romine and any of those pitchers. I could even live with it if they threw in Juan Miranda. I'm not as big of a fan of the deal if it includes Montero but I can probably live with it. There's no guarantee that any prospect will materialize. There is a guarantee that Roy Halladay kicks ass. If the opportunity arises I hope the Yankees go for it.

I'm still undecided on whether or not it's better to deal the guys and pay the contract (for Halladay) then to just pay the contract (Lackey). I prefer Halladay to Lackey but I'm not 100% sure I prefer they deal the prospects and pay the cash for the better pitcher as opposed to just paying the cash for a great but not as good pitcher.

What do you guys think? Do you want to see the Yankees go after Halladay? If so, what can you live with them dealing? What's a dealbreaker? You think they'd be better off signing Lackey as opposed to dealing for Halladay? Lay it on me.

The Hot Stove is heating up. Tomorrow marks the 1st day teams can sign other teams' free agents. Let the games begin.

Peace, love and Pinstripes,



Jason said...

This is a great sports blog you have here. I have two sports blogs myself. I'd like to exchange links with you to help spread some traffic around. We sports bloggers have to stick together.

Let me know if this is possible.


Schruender said...

First of all I just want to add that with Sabathia the Yankees did lose draft picks (though they ended up being watered down after Teixeira and Burnett signed too), and would also lose draft picks in signing Lackey.

Secondly, I think there is a sizable difference in ability between Lackey and Halladay. Lackey hasn't pitched in April for two straight seasons because of injury and Halladay has generally been very durable. Halladay has better numbers than Lackey and has put those numbers up against AL East opponents. I would overpay for Halladay, but not for Lackey. Like you said the Jays would probably want Montero.

Third, I like your point about Vernon Wells also being someone that gets moved. That idea really hadn't crossed my mind before, but he is wayyyyy too overpaid.

J-Boogie said...

Schreunder - I really prefer Halladay to Lackey. I agree his is a lot more duarable and he's definitely succeeded in the AL East. I'm dying over here waiting to hear some kind of rumor about it but so far, as you know, nothing. I have a feeling this will shakedown like it dod with Johan. Rumors abound.

Jason - I'll get them added and will get back to you when done.